News From Secretariat
ANRPC Releases Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, October-November 2020 (Combined issue)
Dec 14, 2020
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, ANRPC releases its Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, October- November 2020 (Combined issue).
Foreword from Secretary-General
The world production of natural rubber (NR) fell by 8.5%, year-over-year, to 10.098 million tonnes during Jan-Oct 2020. Expecting a 10.8%, year-over-year, drop during Nov-Dec 2020, the production during the full year 2020 is expected at 12.597 million tonnes, down 9.0% from the previous year. The revised outlook represents a downward revision by 304,000 tonnes or 2.2 percentage points from the outlook for 2020 which ANRPC had reported in September 2020. The outlook reported in Sep 2020 was 12.901 million tonnes at 6.8% fall. In 2021, the world production is anticipated to recover by posting an 8.6% increase to 13.678 million tonnes. Even if it increases at the anticipated 8.6% rate, the output in 2021 will remain lower than that in 2019 (13.842 million tonnes) or 2018 (13. 839 million tonnes).
The world consumption of NR fell by 8.6%, year-over-year, to 10.496 million tonnes during Jan-Oct 2020. Accounting an anticipated 1.2% increase during Nov-Dec, the likely world consumption during the full year 2020 is expected at 12.811 million tonnes by representing a 6.9% fall from the previous year. The revised outlook represents an upward revision by 200,000 tonnes or 1.5 percentage points compared to the outlook reported by ANRPC in September 2020. The outlook for 2020 as reported in September 2020 was 12.611 million tonnes at 8.4% decline. In 2021, the world consumption is anticipated to make a recovery by increasing at 4.9% rate to 13.436 million tonnes. Despite growing at the anticipated 4.9% rate, the consumption in 2021 will not reach the quantity consumed in 2019 (13.768 million tonnes) or in 2018 (13.898 million tonnes).
Natural rubber market exhibited extreme dynamism during October and November 2020. The prices, both in the futures and physical markets, rose steeply during October, undergone a correction during the first few days of November, and subsequently took a recovery phase through the end of November. The analysis given in this combined issue of the “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics” for October and November 2020 will enable the users to get a closer picture and clear understanding of the price movements and key drivers in the Shanghai, SICOM, and Osaka futures exchanges and the physical markets of TSR, RSS, and latex with reference to the Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Kottayam markets. The period under review (October and November) witnessed the high sensitivity of NR prices to the supply disruptions caused by climate change, extreme weather, and the continued spread of fungal leaf diseases of rubber trees.
Key global events and geopolitics had influenced NR prices, both in the futures and physical markets, during October and November. Sentiment in the market during the two months was influenced by the outbreak of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic especially in the U.S. and Europe, reported success in the development of the COVID-19 vaccines by global pharmaceutical majors, outcome of the U.S. presidential election, depreciation of the U.S, dollar against a basket of currencies, and developments in the crude oil sector.
October and November were hectic months for the ANRPC. The meetings of ANRPC’s Task Force on NR Price, Expert Group on NR Price Stabilization, Working Group on Sustainable Natural Rubber, Information & Statistics Committee (ISC), Industry Matters Committee (IMC), Executive Committee, and the Assembly were held during October and November, which were virtually attended by all Member Governments.
The meeting of the Information & Statistics Committee reviewed the content, quality and the timeliness of this publication and made an important decision to ensure that the users would be able to get the publication on a particular date of every month without failure. The “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics” from Jan 2021 onwards will the published as two separate volumes, viz “NR Statistics” and “NR Trends”. The “NR statistics” will be purely a set of statistical tables (This is same as the 22 tables which are currently annexed to the text). “NR Statistics” for every month will be published within the 25th of the same month without failure. The “NR Trends”, which is the analysis of the trends, will be separately published latest by the last working day of the same month. Consequent to this change, beginning from Jan 2021 the users will get statistical tables about five days in advance and the analytical report based on the same will be received latest by the end of the month. The Information & Statistics Committee will closely monitor the schedule of the publication. There is no change in the subscription rate.
As a new initiative, ANRPC is introducing a fortnightly publication “Rubber Market Intelligence Report” in January 2021. This new publication aims at providing the most recent analysis of the market and a short-term outlook on a fortnightly basis, in 8 to 10 pages. There will be 24 issues in a year. The fee for subscription is US$360.00 for one year (24 issues) and US$185.00 for half-year (12 issues). Those interested may please write to the ANRPC (Email: email@example.com) for getting a free sample issue for evaluating its usefulness.
“Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics” could not be published in October due to a disruption in the information gathering system and the preoccupation of the ANRPC Secretariat for the organization of the various meetings. While apologizing for the same, we ensure that the new system will take care of the matter. Moreover, this issue covers both October and November.
The incessant support and cooperation extended by the esteemed users, statistical correspondents, and stakeholders are once again gratefully acknowledged.
Mr. R. B. Premadasa