Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) is happy to releases Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, July 2020.
The Chinese economy expanded at an annualised 3.2% growth during the second quarter of 2020 (April to June) by beating the expectations after the 6.8% fall in the first quarter. By providing evidence of improving manufacturing activity, the manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) of China touched 51.1 in July. In the U.S., in a major initiative to revitalize the economy with expanded employment benefits ahead of the presidential elections to be held in November, a trillion-dollar coronavirus aid package is in the process of approval. Driven by stimulus policies and improving economic activities in China, the U.S., and other major consuming countries, the world consumption of natural rubber (NR) is anticipated to enter into positive territory by increasing 2.6% year-on-year growth during the three months from August to October 2020 after the 15.0% fall posted in the first half of the year, and 2.7% fall in July.
Prices of NR, both in the futures and physical markets, moved along a recovery path during July with the notable exception of latex market. Despite the growing concerns about a possible second wave of the pandemic and deteriorating US-China diplomatic relation, NR prices have the potential to continue moving along the marginal recovery path, in the short-term, supported by a host of factors which include the anticipated marginal improvement in the world consumption, factors constraining the world production and physical availability of NR , fall in the inventory held in the designated warehouses of the Shanghai Exchange, continued weakness expected in the U.S. dollar, and the support from the crude oil market.
By adding further value to the usefulness and coverage of “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics”, this issue onwards will include three more statistical tables. After introduction of an exclusive statistical table in the last month to provide the updated statistics and forecasts of the NR industry in Brasil, this month we are newly introducing three separate tables by providing the statistical updates and forecasts of NR industry in Guatemala, Columbia, and Mexico. ANRPC is extremely grateful to the Plantation Committee of the Latin American Society of Rubber Technology (Sociedad Latino americana de Tecnología del Caucho or SLTC) and the APABOR of Brasil, for the initiative taken and the willingness shown for this collaboration for the exchange of statistics and information for the benefit of stakeholders of the world rubber industry.
Before I conclude, let me extend the appreciation to the statistical correspondents in the member governments for the encouraging support received for duly making available the updated estimates and forecasts for the compilation of this issue of “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics”. The efforts taken to gather the field level information, despite the operational difficulties caused by the coronavirus pandemic, are gratefully appreciated.
Mr. R. B. Premadasa