News From Secretariat
ANRPC Releases Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics June 2020
Jul 03, 2020
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) is happy to release its Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics June 2020.
The key factor behind the abnormal fall in the prices of natural rubber (NR) since mid-January is the huge drop in the world demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The world consumption of NR dropped by 15.7% during H1 2020 (Jan-Jun 2020) as per the revised estimates. In China, the country accounting 40% of the world demand, the consumption fell by 20.1% during H1 2020.
It is relieving to observe that the worst is almost over as far as the world consumption of NR is concerned. The world consumption is now set to enter positive territory by increasing 1.4%, year-on-year, during Q3 2020 (Jul-Sep). The consumption in China, in particular, is expected to increase by 0.8%, year-on-year, during the same quarter. Although the International Monitory Fund a week ago has further scaled down the global economic outlook for 2020, to -4.9% growth from -3.0% projected in April, the consumption sector of NR has almost returned to normal with the exception of a few countries. More specifically, NR market has almost come out of the concerns over the abnormal fall in the demand. On the supply side, COVID-19 has removed nearly one million tonnes of potential supply of NR from the world market.
Market sentiment is also expected to be triggered by a set of other favourable economic developments which includes the impressive performance of China’s manufacturing in June, measured in terms of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and the U-turn taken by China’s auto sales by rising 14.5% in May after a 4.4% rise in April and 43.0% fall in March. Trends in crude oil market also stay favourable to NR.
While conditions have finally turned favourable for NR market to gain strength and return to the level it ruled during first half of January, it is important to account the associated risks as well. The concern over the possibility of COVID-19 taking a second wave, delay in implementing effective stimulus policies by governments, and increasing geopolitical conflicts can hinder the above favourable factors from getting translated into positive market sentiment.
I have immense pleasure to inform that the Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics from this issue onwards comes along with a detailed statistical information of the NR industry in Brasil by covering preliminary estimates up to the most recent month and the forecasts for the three months in future. ANRPC is extremely grateful to the Association of Rubber Producers and Processors in Brasil (ABRABOR) and the Government of Brasil for extending such an invaluable support and thereby enabling us to add further value to the usefulness of this publication.
Before I conclude, let be appreciate the encouraging support extended by all ANRPC member governments for duly making available the updated estimates and forecasts for the production of this issue of Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics. The painful efforts taken by the statistical correspondents in all the member governments are gratefully acknowledged.
Mr. R. B. Premadasa