The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries releases the “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics
” for May 2017.
From the Desk of Secretary-General
Natural rubber (NR) prices across key physical markets suffered further losses from the last week of May 2017 despite a deficit in world supply. Based on preliminary estimates, world supply during January to May 2017 was nearly 600,000 tonnes in deficit and the shortfall is anticipated to widen to around 700,000 tonnes by the end of June 2017. World supply during 2017 is anticipated at 12.756 million tonnes, slightly lower than 12.771 million tonnes anticipated a month ago. Response of farmers to the prevailing downtrend in NR market is likely to bring the supply further down.
Physical prices of NR are increasingly dominated by sentiments in Shanghai and TOCOM futures which are vulnerable to fluctuations in currencies, crude oil prices and geo-political developments. Analysis relevels that the prevailing bearish trends in NR prices are largely due to unexpected fall in crude oil prices and sharp appreciation in Chinese yuan and Japanese yen. Speculative investors’ expectation of an upward revision in US policy interest rates in June stands as another major constraint for recovery in Asian commodities including NR. These observations point to the increasing vulnerability of natural rubber prices to factors external to its demand and supply.
The ANRPC Expert Group on NR Prices
which met at Hat Yai in South Thailand from 23 to 25 May, examined potential developments in global supply and demand for the years up to 2024 and deliberated at length on possible developments in prices in the context of anticipated demand-supply scenario. The meeting, attended by about 50 experts from nine countries, reviewed grassroots level developments in Member Countries and recommended several policy initiatives for the sustainable development of global NR production sector and for the well-being of farmers. The next meeting of ANRPC Executive Committee is scheduled to consider the recommended measures for implementation in Member Countries.
To further improve the quality of data and reliability of forecasts, ANRPC is organizing a Workshop on Supply, Demand and Modelling
from 11 to 14 July in Davao City in the Philippines. The workshop, to be attended by about 25 statistical officials in Member Governments, is scheduled to review the sources and methods followed by Member Governments for the estimation of data and preparation of forecasts. The workshop will be a major initiative to bring further qualitative improvements in the coverage and reliability of data reported through Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics.
Before I conclude, let me extend ANRPC’s gratitude to statistical correspondents in Member Governments and resource persons in non-ANRPC countries for the invaluable support given by providing the most updated information. We solicit the continued support from all esteemed users by sharing views and giving suggestions for improvements.
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Bich